Pre-election 2014 thread

[Lightspeed]

It's only when we're politicking that we expect people to remember the letters they wrote and who to 11 years ago. Right?

[Ab]

How could Labour, internally, not have known this was coming? In theory they're a major political party.

How hard would it have been, when Liu first came on the media radar, for someone at Labour to have just said "hey research unit, grep the archive for anything to do with Donghua Liu and let's just make sure we're clean before anyone comments".

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

It's only when we're politicking that we expect people to remember the letters they wrote and who to 11 years ago. Right?

Oh please, I'm a fucking alcoholic videogamer and if you were to say to me "have you ever interacted with or advocated for someone named Donghua Liu in the past twenty years" it doesn't matter whether I remember or not, I could tell you within about 30 seconds. And I'm not a candidate for Prime Minister, don't have a PA, or a Chief of Staff, or staff, or a research unit working for me.

[pxpx]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

It's only when we're politicking that we expect people to remember the letters they wrote and who to 11 years ago. Right?

Moot point, next.

[Lightspeed]

All I'm hearing is Labour can't pull swifties like National can.

All I'm seeing are Nat supporters enjoying a good knee-jerk.

[pxpx]

I think it's poetic that JK just had lunch with Bill Clinton. Cunliffe is now using Clintons "I did not have sexual relations - as I understand the definition of sexual relations - with that woman" defense.

[Ab]

Cunliffe's defence: what I did was not technically lying under the dictionary definition of the word, and in any case it's my staff's fault for not telling me I had done the thing I was denying having done.

That's leadership material right there.

Right now there are National strategists chewing their fingernails praying that Cunliffe doesn't resign or get rolled. Cunliffe is their DREAM opposition leader going into the election.

[Lightspeed]

I don't think it's the knee that's being jerked any more...

[fixed_truth]

^ Ha yep. Some serious premature ejaculation going on.

[Ab]

Insightful post from Danyl at Dimpost:

And that's how it's done

Under ordinary circumstances the revelation that David Cunliffe wrote a letter of advocacy for Donghua Liu wouldn’t amount to much. Cunliffe didn’t do anything wrong and he wrote the letter eleven years ago.

These aren’t ordinary circumstances though. The unfolding story of Liu’s donation has almost certainly been managed by the PM’s office and they’ve earned their paychecks this week and set David Cunliffe up something awful. He was given the opportunity to deny ever having contact with Liu and stupidly took it, at which point a document proving that he did was immediately released.

We’re going to hear a lot about how this proves Cunliffe is ‘tricky’ because that’s National’s talking point. I think it’s a bit worse than that: it proves Cunliffe is a gullible sucker. He blundered his way into a classic media trap in which he denies a small story and the denial is then proved false which becomes a major story because it directly attacks the politician’s credibility. Aspiring Prime Ministers are supposed to be a bit more savvy.

Back when Shane Jones resigned as an MP I wrote that St Jonesy was likely to leak as much damaging information about Labour as he could to his new employers, the New Zealand National Party. My guess is that this is partly his handiwork. Previous highly damaging leaks from within Labour were attributed to a ‘Labour caucus source’, but the Herald’s first story about Liu and Labour was attributed to a ‘Labour Party source’ suggesting a change in status. All the PM’s office needed to know was that Liu had dealings with Labour, then they could go digging and they hit gold.

Will Cunliffe resign or get rolled by his caucus? I’m guessing no. Do I want him to? Honestly I don’t really care. Labour has seemed like a broken, dying party for almost as long as I’ve been interested in politics, so the fluctuating identity of the leader just doesn’t seem that important.

[Juju]

It's not often that the phrase "hoisted on his own petard" is so apt.

[pxpx]

Originally Posted by fixed_truth

^ Ha yep. Some serious premature ejaculation going on.

No more than when Labour thought they were on to something with the GSCB & Oravida.

[CCS]

Cunliffe, Barker, Carter... who is next?

[Ab]

If David Cunliffe’s credibility wasn’t shot before this, it is now. Cunliffe is now unelectable as the next Prime Minister.

So what can Labour do? Not much.

They can replace him. Sure. But history tells us that won’t work this close to polling day.

No, Labour will stumble towards the election with Cunliffe at the helm and he’ll take the bullet for the team.

This is sloppy and his opponents in caucus will write today’s date down: today is crucial. Today is the day his MPs all privately lost the faith; they’ll be sharpening their knives for the days after the election.

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Duncan-Ga...7/Default.aspx

[fixed_truth]

Originally Posted by pxpx

No more than when Labour thought they were on to something with the GSCB & Oravida.

Eh? Cunliffe forgot about an 11 year old pretty standard constituency letter.

While on a taxpayer-funded trip Collins deliberately withheld details of a pre-planned dinner with executives of a donor company and a border control official.

[Ab]

THAT DEPENDS ON WHAT YOUR DEFINITION OF "LOL" IS

[pxpx]

FT you're way off. I'm replying to exactly what is quoted in my post, and nothing more. Nice try though.

[Lightspeed]

You guys just cooking up the whole slippery definition thing, aren't you?

Cause all I'm seeing is a guy saying he can't remember writing a letter 11 years ago.

[pxpx]

Well he's just bailed on an interview with ZB that he had previously committed to. That seems a bit slippery doesn't it?

[Lightspeed]

Ahaha, now who's being slippery?

[cyc]

Originally Posted by pxpx

Wake up LS - Cunliffe is bad for Labour and the writing is now on the wall.

LS is just a dumb piece of vegetable who likes to pretend to be objective by constantly denying to have views on things or claiming that things are merely claims by a biased media when it suits him to play dumb.

[Lightspeed]

lolz, thanks cyc. I guess you're not reading often enough to pick up where I point out and admit to my biases. Or you're stuck inside some kind of solipsist fantasy.

[Ab]

Stuff puts the boot in

David Cunliffe's Catastrophes

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...s-catastrophes

[pxpx]

I don't think Cunliffes big gaffe should necessarily overshadow the fact that it appears they accepted donations in exchange for "checking how long it was going to take" with respect to Lius residency application.

[Golden Teapot]

I almost can't believe that labour has chosen to run a negative dirt campaign when most people who actually vote are happy and optimistic. The stupidity here is at catatonic level given they don't appear to really have any dirt of substance and they must know they are not smart enough to outwit the other side when trying to mislead the electorate with bare faced lies.

The only thing I know about labour today is that they vote "no" to every single thing the current government does. I've no idea what it is they claim they could do better since they never mention what that might be except through the issue of flippant and fanciful soundbites that I doubt anyone with a post-primary level of education believes.

For me this is the worst election ever - I've bought my ticket but only one side has turned up at the stadium for the match.

[Ab]

New poll numbers today, fairfax-ipsos:

In the latest Stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political poll, Labour has dropped 6 percentage points to 23 per cent. National is soaring on 56 per cent, which would allow it to govern alone.

After a wave of dismal results, the latest poll would leave Labour with 29 seats, meaning five MPs would get the chop if the election were held today. National would win 71 seats.

http://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politi...s-and-poll-woe

Poll taken before the start of the current clusterfuck.

Edit update:

- National 56.5% (+8.9)
- Labour 23.2% (-6.2)
- Greens 11.9% (-0.8)
- NZ First 3.2% (-0.5)
- Mana 1.2% (+0/7)
- Maori Party 0.7% (-1.2)
- Act 0.7% (-0.2)
- United Future 0% (-0.1)

Internet-MANA combined – 2.1%

[CCS]

56.5%? Holy shit, that is pretty high. I wonder if they've ever polled anywhere near that high since 2008 on the IPSOS poll.

Probably won't achieve that at election time but, y'know... 56.5%.

[Ab]

The thing about Barack’s buddy John Kiwi is you pretty much get what you see.

The hoi polloi of the cricketing world had turned out on the Rose Garden at the United Nations to witness cricketing great Sir Richard Hadlee send a few up the crease to the confident Prime Minister.

It was an unlikely place, New York, to be promoting cricket which few in that town of the Yankees would know anything about. But then there are quite a few cricketing nations at the UN and this event was to skite about how we’re hosting the Cricket World Cup with the Aussies next year. It makes us look good. The Aussies are finishing their two year stint on the UN Security Council which we’re so desperate to be a part of.

Before dispensing with his tie for the bowl up (more like a roll up) the PM stepped up to the microphone to share with them a bit of good old Kiwi humour.

He told the story of how his in-laws worked in a shoe factory when he was hanging out with his now wife Bronagh. She managed to score a holiday job at the factory and was soon put to work on making special cricket boots for none other than Hadlee, or Paddles as Key said he was affectionately known. It was when she filled out her tax form that she raised a few eyebrows, putting her job down as “stud screwer”. Yeah, that’s what Kiwi told his audience.

He said the office girl at the factory asked her to find a more appropriate description of her job, like factory worker. Her blokey boyfriend was having none of it, he said. He encouraged her to stick with ‘stud screwer’ for very different reasons. Well the audience politely chuckled, which prompted him to observe that he’d probably given out far too much information.

But that’s the thing about Key. He seems to be able to get away with it even if the cringe meter had climbed into the red zone.

http://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/auckland...-box-19jun2014

[Ab]

But when John drops the everyone's-embarassing-best-mate act and puts on the Littlefinger costume:

Speaking from the East Lawn at the United Nations this morning, Mr Key said he had heard rumours that Mr Liu had given more that $15,000.

"I've heard the rumours and we'll see what actually comes out but I'd be very, very amazed if the amount is $15,000," he told New Zealand reporters.

"That's for the Labour Party to make clear to the New Zealand public."

Translation: there's a huge fucking undeclared-campaign-donation skeleton in the Labour closet and we know about it and now Labour knows we know about it but they don't know exactly what we know, so they won't know what to confirm or what to deny and pass the popcorn.

[Lightspeed]

National setup conspiracy theories just got a boost:
PM and deputy at odds over Cunliffe letter

Speaking to reporters in New York, Mr Key said he had known about the letter for some time. "Can't exactly recall, I think it was a few weeks ago," he said.

Hours later on Radio New Zealand's Morning Report programme Deputy Prime Minister Bill English had a different story.

"As I understand it, it's a response to an OIA (Official Information Act request) to the Immigration Service and we wouldn't know a lot about what's on their files."

"Politically embarrassing" seems to be the most accurate and reasonable way of describing this whole affair.

[pxpx]

Yep, I can totally see National unravelling over this.

[Lightspeed]

I expect National and Labour to unravel equal amounts from this whole affair. I.E. the whole thing has been a waste of time and energy.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

"Politically embarrassing" seems to be the most accurate and reasonable way of describing this whole affair.

This whole clusterfuck is disastrous for Cunliffe personally and for Labour as a whole. They've gifted the election to National on a plate.

[Lightspeed]

I think you're just a giddy Nat supporter. I expect Labour supporters or at least Nat opposers won't have forgotten the number of cabinet members who have resigned their posts this last term or why.

Also, do you really think Labour are in a position to gift National the election? Any votes slipping from Labour aren't likely to land on National, nor do I think National needs those votes anyway.

[CCS]

Least trusted NZers:

86. John Key, Prime Minister
~
90. Pita Sharples, Minister of Maori Affairs
91. Metiria Turei, Green Party co-leader
91. Russel Norman, Green Party co-leader
93. Michael Fay, businessman
94. Matt McCarten, Labour chief of staff
94. Bunny McDiarmid, Greenpeace executive director
96. Winston Peters, New Zealand First leader
97. David Cunliffe, Labour Party leader
98. Michael Laws, former Wanganui Mayor
99. Kim Dotcom, internet entrepreneur
100. Hone Harawira, Mana Party leader

Fucked on election day.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

I think you're just a giddy Nat supporter. I expect Labour supporters or at least Nat opposers won't have forgotten the number of cabinet members who have resigned their posts this last term or why.

Also, do you really think Labour are in a position to gift National the election? Any votes slipping from Labour aren't likely to land on National, nor do I think National needs those votes anyway.

I think right now Labour is in a fucked position because it's no longer the only player on the left, and Key has moved National to the centre. Truly socialist voters now have the Greens and the Alliance as more natural homes, and moderate Labour voters will look at Labour and then at National and be tempted by the one that doesn't like look fucking incompetent.

So what does Cunliffe do? Chase those disillusioned leftie voters by going hard socialist and fighting for the left end of the spectrum? Try to retain the moderate Labour voters by fighting National on what is now National's home ground in the centre? He can't do both. And whatever he does he has to look organised and professional and competent, and he's sure ain't doing that.

All National has to do to walk home in 90 days is say "EVERYTHING'S PRETTY CHOICE. DON'T FUCK IT UP." The only real issue of leverage Labour has had in the past six months is National being too cosy with wealthy Chinese donors, and they just pissed that away. The only thing that has had National even slightly rattled is now something that National would just love Labour to bring up as much as possible.

[crocos]

Originally Posted by Ab

How hard would it have been, when Liu first came on the media radar, for someone at Labour to have just said "hey research unit, grep the archive for anything to do with Donghua Liu and let's just make sure we're clean before anyone comments".

Considering they let Claire Curran be their ICT representative? Lol.

[crocos]

Originally Posted by pxpx

No more than when Labour thought they were on to something with the GSCB & Oravida.

The funny part there is they WERE onto something until they fucked it up.

[Ab]

Dom Post puts the boot in

David Cunliffe itched to be Labour Party leader for years. After losing power in 2008, the party lumbered along under two failing leaders. He barely hid his ambitions to replace them.

Now, 10 months into his tenure, he should take a moment to enjoy the role. Barring a miraculous campaign performance, he'll be finished soon.

The heart of the problem is Cunliffe's judgment and temperament, which have been found lacking yet again. Under direct questions on a specific matter, about a public figure involved in repeated scandals, the Labour leader got it completely, insistently wrong.

He followed up the blunder by issuing veiled threats at caucus colleagues considering disloyalty - all but calling them "scabs".

If Cunliffe was ahead in the polls, or if this was an isolated misstep, he could shrug it off quickly. But his support is so low, and his gaffes so familiar, the impression will linger longer than the incident itself: that he is not up to running the country.

From his secret trust for donations to his leadership bid, to his laughable description of his $2.5 million Herne Bay home as a "doer-upper", Cunliffe has repeatedly made a fool of himself in awkward, revealing ways.

Combine those mistakes with a haughty, serious style, a tendency to preach instead of persuade, a fondness for vague rallying cries (with liberal talk of "Kiwis") instead of insights that speak to people's concerns, and Cunliffe's predicament is not surprising.

Of course, the self-fulfilling nature of bad polling plays a part, too. Watching a party go into freefall is something like a bank run; no-one wants to be the last supporter standing. But Cunliffe has failed to stop the panic.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post...-you-can-David

[pxpx]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11278299

How long till Cunliffe tries a "they did it too, see?" defence and it falls flat.

[Lightspeed]

National's spin machine is pretty slick, no doubt. That they have people thinking that forgetting a legitimate letter was written is comparable with intervening in a police investigation is very good work.