Pre-election 2014 thread

[pxpx]

Thought:

Has anyone ever seen a study use a segmented approach to affordability? I mean you’re not going to see the 40-80k p/a income group wanting to buy in the 800-1m suburb, but if you take the broad brush approach and say “the average house price in Auckland is X and the average income in Auckland in Y” you’re always going to get a more negative result.

Wouldn’t it be more appropriate to say “the X income group typically need to live in these areas (based on work/lifestyle needs) where the average house price is Y” Therefore housing affordability for X income group is Z.

[CCS]

That sounds far too sensible. So, no.

[fixed_truth]

Like this? http://www.interest.co.nz/calculators/where-can-i-buy

Some useful info here too - http://www.interest.co.nz/property/h...-affordability

[Ab]

Look it's my god-given right to live in Mission Bay and it's just not fair that I can't buy my first house there

[pxpx]

Thanks FT, that's a bit better.... but looking at the Roost Home loan affordability, it's using a localised house pricing measure, but a nationalised income measure? This is the kind of skew that I'm trying to avoid. You don't see the renters in Ranui trying to buy in cliff-top Castor bay, for example.

I'm not trying to say that there isn't a problem with the housing market, because there clearly is, I just don't like the way it's reported in the media, and by interest groups, I really think it's overstated, from a statistical perspective.

GT what does your abacus say?

Originally Posted by Ab

Look it's my god-given right to live in Mission Bay and it's just not fair that I can't buy my first house there

Bingo

[Lightspeed]

Mission Bay is meh. Kohimarama is where it's at. I'm quite happy renting there until it starts flooding regularly.

The issue is not even skilled workers can get a look in on home ownership, let alone all the completely necessary low skill workers that are required to maintain a city. Just because you can find some well-to-do complaining they can't afford 5+2 with ocean views, it doesn't mean that's where the bulk of the problem is.

[CCS]

Originally Posted by Ab

Look it's my god-given right to live in Mission Bay and it's just not fair that I can't buy my first house there

What you need to do is buy the worst house in the best street in Mission Bay and do it up.

[pxpx]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

Mission Bay is meh. Kohimarama is where it's at. I'm quite happy renting there until it starts flooding regularly.

The issue is not even skilled workers can get a look in on home ownership, let alone all the completely necessary low skill workers that are required to maintain a city. Just because you can find some well-to-do complaining they can't afford 5+2 with ocean views, it doesn't mean that's where the bulk of the problem is.

That's not the issue, you've simply provided an oversimplification due to laziness on your part.

[Lightspeed]

I was simply dumbing it down due to ignorance on your part.

[pxpx]

Originally Posted by Lightspeed

I was simply dumbing it down due to ignorance on your part.

Lightspeed, Ladies and Gents, He'll be here for the forseeable future.

[Lightspeed]

So what? You can tell me what I'm posting and why, but it doesn't work the other way around? No, of course, not.

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by pxpx

That's not the issue, this issue is in fact...

lolz, just kidding.

[fixed_truth]

"Interesting" report on Campbell Live (20mis)

Key's meeting with GCSB boss revealed

[Lightspeed]

It seems the NZ media thinks cricket fixing is a more pressing concern. Or JC has pissed them all off somehow so they're ignoring his stories.

[pxpx]

Not mentioned in that report:
- Moon landings never happened
- 2Pac, Elvis, Michael Jackson are all in cryo storage awaiting evacuation to Earth II
- Molemen

RESIGN JOHN KEY.

[Ab]

Originally Posted by fixed_truth

"Interesting" report on Campbell Live (20mis)

Key's meeting with GCSB boss revealed

JOURNALISM

[fixed_truth]

A more balanced analysis than the "Fourth Armoured Nothing to See Here Brigade" - http://publicaddress.net/hardnews/ci...d-coincidence/

The meeting at Treadwell’s home may simply have been a get-to-know-you for Fletcher. That wouldn’t be unusual. But it does seem unusual that Fletcher, having been brought into the loop so far in advance of starting his new job, and then having flown over yet again for a meeting in the same week that surveillance of Dotcom actually began, remained innocent of what was a notable and legally perilous operation on behalf of the US government.

It also seems unusual that the Prime Minister, the minister responsible for the GCSB, would not even have known who Dotcom was until January 19, the day before the raid on the Dotcom mansion. But no one can prove otherwise. There is only circumstance and coincidence.

Well, actually, there’s more than that. There are misleading statements, unfortunate failures of memory, and the fact that almost everything we know about the whole mess has had to be dug out by journalists. Campbell Live may turn out to have grossly over-reached, as its critics insist. But there seems every reason to keep digging

[Ab]

New One News Colmar Brunton poll:

National 51%,
Labour 30%, Greens 11%, NZF 4.8%

3news out as well:

National: 50.3% up 4.4%
Labour: 29.5% down 1.7%
Greens: 10.2%
NZ First 5.6%
Conservatives 2.3%
Maori: 0.6%
Act: 0.5%
Internet Party: 0.6%

[Caesar]

Looks like the war on the poor is going to continue for some time then:/

[fixed_truth]

Well that all depends on who Winston will king.

[pxpx]

Noone, at this rate

[fixed_truth]

I missed the latest Roy Morgan

National (45.5%) regains lead over Labour/ Greens (44%) after Finance Minister Bill English delivers sixth Budget and projects a Budget surplus this year of $372 million – the first NZ Budget surplus since 2008

[Ab]

Desperate Cunliffe plays the xenophobia card.

http://www.3news.co.nz/David-Cunliff...5/Default.aspx

Sad. That labour is reduced to this.

[JiggaRoll]

Originally Posted by Ab

Desperate Cunliffe plays the xenophobia card.

It appears to be working in Europe

[fixed_truth]

Last week Bernard Hickey did an article on the downside of Treasury migration forecasts: Bernard Hickey: Budget buries migration bomb

So the Treasury's upside scenario is that in the next six to nine months net migration will be only 3500 over its central forecast.
But the impact will be massive. Treasury forecasts that private consumption growth will spurt to 5.3 per cent from its main forecast of 4.2 per cent. The extra migration would drive employment up and unemployment down to almost 4 per cent by 2018.
That sounds fantastic, but there's a downside. "With the economy already growing faster than potential, the further boost to domestic demand sees any spare capacity in the economy used up more quickly than in the main forecast," Treasury said.
That is code for inflationary pressure and higher interest rates. It forecasts short-term interest rates would jump by a full one percentage point more than already forecast to almost 6 per cent by early 2016.
That would see floating mortgage rates hit 9 per cent and the current account deficit would jump to 6.8 per cent from 6.3 per cent.

But yeah Cunliffe should focus on promoting their housing policies, the CGT and extra reserve bank tools rather than this pandering. Migration/housing etc not need be a problem under Labour; only under the economic idiots that can only sell assets, borrow into the stratosphere (thanks Cullen), spend and hope that the market works it all out.

[CCS]

chinks get out

[spigalau]

If the Greens, Internet & Mana partys form an Alliance - does that make them the GIMP party ?

[BoyWonder]

What about... Labour, Internet and Mana Party?

[Lightspeed]

What about fuck you?

Seriously Mana and Dotcom can go jump. Bradford needs to head back to the Greens. Keep 'em firmly on the left, leave the center to Labour.

[Farmer Joe]

I for one welcome high interest rates. Bring that shit on - I don't have a mortgage.

[Ab]

Remember when it was the right-wing parties that hated foreigners?

[Savage]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...es-join-forces

"Mana and the Internet Party have confirmed they will contest this year's election together in a party to be called Internet-Mana.

But the deal has already come at a cost for Mana, with Sue Bradford and another party member resigning. Bradford said "sucking up to German millionaires" was not her vision of the future"

[Lightspeed]

Originally Posted by Ab

Remember when it was the right-wing parties that hated foreigners?

Is that it though? Are you sure it's not "hate population growth at current rates" or something like that? I'm not really following it closely, but I haven't heard anything about the problems immigrants bring by virtue of being foreign. That's the right's game isn't it? More foreigners make us less kiwi or something? Is the left playing that angle now?

[fixed_truth]

"We reckon immigration should be at a steady moderate level - that's where our housing, our schools and our hospitals can cope"

Oh the hatred! Won't someone think of the immigrants!

http://www.3news.co.nz/Interview-Lab...6/Default.aspx

[CCS]

Originally Posted by Savage

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...es-join-forces

"Mana and the Internet Party have confirmed they will contest this year's election together in a party to be called Internet-Mana.

But the deal has already come at a cost for Mana, with Sue Bradford and another party member resigning. Bradford said "sucking up to German millionaires" was not her vision of the future"

Bags of lol at IMP. Hone reckons he'll fuck off in 2017 but he may not even last that long if this partnership causes the party to implode.

[Ab]

Cunliffe today refused to put a number on what he would consider a sustainable flow, but he has previously pointed to net flows of 5000 to 15,000 in the past

Cunliffe is a former Minister of Immigration so let's assume he's not just making shit up. OK, for the years when Cunliffe was a Cabinet Minister in the last Labour Government, what were the annual immigration totals?

2008 – 64,320
2007 – 59,670
2006 – 58,640
2005 – 54,710
2004 – 54,670
2003 – 64,310
2002 – 71,040

"5000 to 15,000" my arse.

See here's what's happening. Auckland is critical for Labour, and polling has revealed that housing prices specifically in Auckland is an issue that poll respondents have strong feelings about.

How do you slow down the growth in Auckland property prices? Three options.

1. Expand the city area outwards. More outer suburbs. NO NO, WE'RE AGAINST URBAN SPRAWL cry the middle-class nimbies.

2. Expand the city area upwards. More urban apartments. NO NO, WE'RE AGAINST PROPERTY DEVELOPERS DESTROYING OUR BEAUTIFUL SKYLINE cry the middle-class nimbies.

3. Decrease the number of people moving to Auckland.

So to campaign on an issue that Labour has identified as being a key issue in a key area, Labour has only one option - the only policy it can launch on that area is the "slow the increase in people" option.

Now a lot of the incoming migration is Kiwis returning home and Aussies moving trans-tasman, which is protected under CER. So that limits Labour's policy options even further. On this key issue in a key area Labour's only option is to cry "too many foreigners" and claim that National is going to let the yellow hordes swamp our beautiful racially-pure paradise.

So that's what they're doing. Collins Oravida China YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL. Williamson Liu YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL. Auckland properties YELLOW PERIL YELLOW PERIL.

[spigalau]

Wouldn't one possible answer to Aucklands land issue is to purchase all the land holdings within the Remuera area, bulldoze the lot and put in high density housing ? Close to the CBD, close to the rail & motorway networks. Just not well used atmo.

[Lightspeed]

lolz, you trippin' balls Ab.

[CCS]

Originally Posted by Ab

1. Expand the city area outwards. More outer suburbs. NO NO, WE'RE AGAINST URBAN SPRAWL cry the middle-class nimbies.

I'm an Aucklander and I'm all for urban sprawl. Sprawl dat shit out.

Also, actually, apartments aren't so bad as long as you do them right. A mixture of 'up and out' is fine.

Originally Posted by spigalau

Wouldn't one possible answer to Aucklands land issue is to purchase all the land holdings within the Remuera area, bulldoze the lot and put in high density housing ? Close to the CBD, close to the rail & motorway networks. Just not well used atmo.

DO ITS.

[pxpx]

I'm 100% in support of sprawl that is underpinned by investments in arterial routes (busways and whatnot).

Where else am I going to put my rental properties?