Pre-election 2014 thread
 

Right now, 22 Jan, Labour+Green > National. That's just a primary vote comparison, not "Seats in the House".

Huh I'm surprised but gladdened by the lack of Colin Craig

National Party 43.5% (down 1.5%)
Labour Party 33.5% (up 3%)
Green Party 12.5% (down 2%)
NZF 4% (down 1%)
Conservative 2.5% (up 0.5%)
Maori Party 2% (up 0.5%)
United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%)
Mana Party 0.5% (down 0.5%)
ACT NZ 0% (unchanged).
Others 1% (up 0.5%)

new Colmar Brunton out tonight:

Party Support

National 51.0% (+6.0%)
Labour 34.0% (nc)
Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)
Projected Seats

National 64
Labour 44
Green 11
ACT 1
Maori 3
United Future 1
Mana 1
NZ First 0
Conservative 0
Total 125
This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
CL – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125
On this poll there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

John Key 43% (+1.0%)
David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
Winston Peters 4% (nc)

not that I'm following it that closely, but it seems like there's a real drought of serious competitors. I don't like John Key but it doesn't seem there is anybody else to choose from. I mean, Winston Peters? hell no.

Don't know much about Cunliffe. I see he raised questions about the Huawei mess with all the contracts in NZ for the ultrafast broadband stuff which I quite like the sound of.

I hate the way John Key is a US lackey in terms of security/data sharing etc. Really hate that.

10%.. wow.

Hey Charismo, why do you disagree with data-sharing with the US? They are one of our allies? Would you rather we not be allied with the US? Are you a terrorist? (nb: last question was facetious)

Long way out from the election, anything can happen. But 40% of the Green vote disappearing in one hit has got to be a worry.

Nats up 6%, Greens down 5%, Lab no change... the bald numbers kinda suggest the Nats increase is in large part due to Greens moving over to Nat. If so... LOOOOOL!

More likely the Green vote went over to Labour, and Labour both shed & gained 5%.

Ah well, that would still mean that somewhere in the region of 5% went from Lab to Nat. Which is still pretty lolish.

Polls, lolz.

^lol

I think there is an underlying trend in the past month but yeah, this poll does seem a bit whack.

Perhaps the general public has finally figured out that the Greens aren't the Greens of old (Rob & Jeanette) and are now a bunch of fruit loops & whackos ?

Seems a bit of an illogical explanation to me and I've not come across it from any political commentator yet. But yeah, who knows. Maybe they magically did have a change of heart!

The Greens of old are fruit loops and whackos too, just a different kind.

Oh lol, if this is true then time to start investing in popcorn futures.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...-staff-sources

wtf?!


Also, did McCarten's Unite Union ever pay their tax bill?

I don't think so. Which means every single Labour punchline about "getting corporations to pay their fair share of tax" just went out the window.

Seriously, when I first saw the headline I thought it was a joke. This is insane.

...if it's the 2014 election Cunliffe is trying to win....

like a house on fire
 

Is this real life?

THAT'S SOME CHEMISTRY THERE ALL RIGHT

I don't always agree with what McCarten has to say and there's the chance his leftwingedness might scare some middle swingers. But, if anyone can motivate and organise the massive block non-voters (800000?), it's McCarten.

Who?

And you reason for saying that is...? I can't think of anything McCarten's ever been involved with that hasn't turned to shit.

What about his elocution lessons? Oh...

OTTOMH he got some good results with Unite, also he has a lot of political experience including involvement with both Maori party and Mana so probably has a lot of useful campaigning contacts on the left.

Yeah, he had some really good results with Unite. He did a bang up job of not paying tax.

I'm not sure what it is that he actually achieved for the Mana party. I'm not sure how much of Maori party's success was down to McCarten. Maybe his expertise is more suited to fledgling new parties rather than long established parties like Labour?

Act - going for the inbreeder vote?

Would that the be the existing Green block ?

Plus Gore, Ashburton and Waimate I think...

As 'correct' is position on this may be; sadly there's places where politicians shouldn't tread because of headline whores.

Politician says something perfectly sensible, headline whores go mental.

Hey, that's mainstream news these days. Whyte and Craig need to learn that. "Act into sister sex? We'll tell you more after the break!"

That's right. Politics is a source of entertainment in the news, it's not really a source of news. Well, the news isn't a source of news I suppose.

Labour leader uses secret trust to launder campaign donations, what could possibly go wrong?

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11212625

February aggregate of all polls. Good month for National.

The words Trust & Labour should not be used in the same sentance. Am still pissed that they promised and then cut my 'chewing gum tax cut'... bstrds.